Market Context by Polymarket
The 2024 August hottest on record? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 August 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $3.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior August when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for August 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for August, and if 2024 August is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 August is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2024 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for 2024 August hottest on record??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on 2024 August hottest on record??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the 2024 August hottest on record? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 August 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on 2024 August hottest on record??
$3.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on 2024 August hottest on record??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.