Market Context by Polymarket
The Assad leaves Syria before 2025? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.3M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Syria for any length of time between December 6, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Assad may have exited Syrian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Syria for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Assad exits Syrian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Syria, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Assad leaves Syria before 2025??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Assad leaves Syria before 2025??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Assad leaves Syria before 2025? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Assad leaves Syria before 2025??
$1.3M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Assad leaves Syria before 2025??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.