Market Context by Polymarket
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. December 31 currently leads at 20%, ahead of October 31 at 11% and September 30 at 3%, across 12 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $14M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...??
December 31 leads at 20%, followed by October 31 at 11% and September 30 at 3%. Odds reflect live trading across 12 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by?
December 31, at 20% implied probability.
How does the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by?
$14M has traded cumulatively on this market across 12 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.