Market Context by Polymarket
The Canada Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Liberals by 0-3% currently leads at 100%, ahead of Conservatives by >12% at 0% and Conservatives by 9-12% at 0%, across 11 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $5.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to according to the popular vote margin of victory. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the party that wins the most votes and the second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based off the official vote count published by the Government of Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If neither the Conservative or Liberal win the most votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Canada Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory??
Liberals by 0-3% leads at 100%, followed by Conservatives by >12% at 0% and Conservatives by 9-12% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 11 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Canada Election: Popular Vote Margin of Vi?
Liberals by 0-3%, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Canada Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Canada Election: Popular Vote Margin of Vi?
$5.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 11 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Canada Election: Popular Vote Margin of Vi?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.