Market Context by Polymarket
The Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2023.
Cumulative volume on this market is $598K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible evidence surfaces indicating that Israeli intelligence agencies or the Israeli government had foreknowledge of a specific attack by Hamas, linked to the October 7 attack, and took no action to prevent it by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The evidence must unequivocally demonstrate that the Israeli government or intelligence apparatus had substantial and specific information about an attack by Hamas prior to its occurrence and deliberately chose not to act. Generic or vague alerts, warnings, or intelligence without direct link to the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas will not be considered sufficient for this market's resolution. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Did Israeli intelligence have advanced kno?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Did Israeli intelligence have advanced knowledge of the Attack? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2023. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Did Israeli intelligence have advanced kno?
$598K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Did Israeli intelligence have advanced kno?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.