Market Context by Polymarket
The ECB Interest Rates: June 2025 market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 25 bps decrease currently leads at 100%, ahead of 50+ bps decrease at 0% and No Change at 0%, across 4 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 5 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $973K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is information from the ECB released after its meeting scheduled for June 4-5, 2025 according to their official calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official website of the ECB at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by July 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for ECB Interest Rates: June 2025?
25 bps decrease leads at 100%, followed by 50+ bps decrease at 0% and No Change at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 4 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on ECB Interest Rates: June 2025?
25 bps decrease, at 100% implied probability.
How does the ECB Interest Rates: June 2025 market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on ECB Interest Rates: June 2025?
$973K has traded cumulatively on this market across 4 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on ECB Interest Rates: June 2025?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on economics?
Fed and macro markets tend to move in step with rate futures and repricing after data releases. They are usually well-calibrated close to a decision date and noisier further out.