Market Context by Polymarket
The Fed decision in July? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No change currently leads at 100%, ahead of 50+ bps decrease at 0% and 25 bps decrease at 0%, across 4 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 July 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $137M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2025 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 29 - 30, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Fed decision in July??
No change leads at 100%, followed by 50+ bps decrease at 0% and 25 bps decrease at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 4 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Fed decision in July??
No change, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Fed decision in July? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 July 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Fed decision in July??
$137M has traded cumulatively on this market across 4 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Fed decision in July??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.