Market Context by Polymarket
The FL-1 special election: Jimmy Patronis margin of victory market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. <20% currently leads at 100%, ahead of 20-25% at 0% and 25-30% at 0%, across 5 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $809K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
A special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District is scheduled to take place on April 1, 2025. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory for Republican Jimmy Patronis. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Jimmy Patronis and the candidate that receives second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receive by the sum of all votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Jimmy Patronis does not win the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Florida has certified the vote for this race. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for FL-1 special election: Jimmy Patronis margin of victory?
<20% leads at 100%, followed by 20-25% at 0% and 25-30% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 5 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on FL-1 special election: Jimmy Patronis marg?
<20%, at 100% implied probability.
How does the FL-1 special election: Jimmy Patronis margin of victory market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on FL-1 special election: Jimmy Patronis marg?
$809K has traded cumulatively on this market across 5 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on FL-1 special election: Jimmy Patronis marg?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.