Market Context by Polymarket
The How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16) market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 35-39 currently leads at 100%, ahead of <10 at 0% and 10-14 at 0%, across 9 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 16 March 2026.
Use the analytics above to explore live prices, outcome history and trader positioning on this Polymarket market.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 10, 2026 through March 16, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 16, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16)?
35-39 leads at 100%, followed by <10 at 0% and 10-14 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 9 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormu?
35-39, at 100% implied probability.
How does the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 10-16) market resolve?
The market resolves on 16 March 2026. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormu?
Trading volume for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormu is shown in the stats above and updates as new trades clear.
Can I see who is betting on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormu?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.