Market Context by Polymarket
The How many viewers will Trump's address to Congress get? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 34-38m currently leads at 100%, ahead of <34m at 0% and 38-42m at 0%, across 5 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 4 March 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $389K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
Donald Trump's first address to a joint session of congress for his second term is scheduled for March 4, 2025, 9 PM ET. You can read more about it here: https://www.npr.org/2025/03/03/nx-s1-5313468/trump-joint-session-of-congress This market will resolve according to the number of viewers Nielsen reports this joint session of Congress as having. If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. If a debate takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the speech within 10 days, another credible source may be chosen.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for How many viewers will Trump's address to Congress get??
34-38m leads at 100%, followed by <34m at 0% and 38-42m at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 5 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on How many viewers will Trump's address to C?
34-38m, at 100% implied probability.
How does the How many viewers will Trump's address to Congress get? market resolve?
The market resolves on 4 March 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on How many viewers will Trump's address to C?
$389K has traded cumulatively on this market across 5 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on How many viewers will Trump's address to C?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.