Market Context by Polymarket
The Iran military response by...? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Monday June 23 currently leads at 100%, ahead of Friday June 27 at 100% and Monday June 30 at 100%, across 4 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, or on any U.S. territory, embassy, or consulate, between June 2, 2025 (inclusive) and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting..
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Iran military response by...??
Monday June 23 leads at 100%, followed by Friday June 27 at 100% and Monday June 30 at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 4 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Iran military response by...??
Monday June 23, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Iran military response by...? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Iran military response by...??
$2.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 4 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Iran military response by...??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.