Market Context by Polymarket
The Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2023.
Cumulative volume on this market is $3.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the paper titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) are replicated at least two times by independent researchers unaffiliated with the authors of this paper by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of these replications. If there is ambiguity as to whether replications under consideration for the resolution of this market are credible, this may remain open until July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, to allow for the publication of any replication results in a reputable journal. One such publication will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If no such paper is published by this delayed resolution time, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2023. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real??
$3.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Is the Room-Temp Superconductor real??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.