Market Context by Polymarket
The Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 30 September 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $347K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between September 9 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 30 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by S?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by Sept 30? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 September 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by S?
$347K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Kamala flips Trump on Silver Bulletin by S?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.