Market Context by Polymarket
The Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $647K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined cap weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index cap weighting formula, falls below 30% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the cap weighting formula for the S&P 500.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Magnificent 7 shrinks below 2025?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Magnificent 7 shrinks below 2025?
$647K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Magnificent 7 shrinks below 2025?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.