Market Context by Polymarket
The Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $630K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michel Barnier ceases to be the Prime Minister of France for any period of time between November 20, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Michel Barnier out as prime 2024?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Michel Barnier out as prime 2024?
$630K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Michel Barnier out as prime 2024?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.