Market Context by Polymarket
The New Pope before July? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $348K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Pope after Pope Francis is announced by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for New Pope before July??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on New Pope before July??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the New Pope before July? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on New Pope before July??
$348K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on New Pope before July??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.