Market Context by Polymarket
The Next Government of Canada market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Liberal Minority currently leads at 100%, ahead of Liberal Majority at 0% and Conservative Majority at 0%, across 5 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $19M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition that forms after the next Canadian Parliament after the election. The government will be considered formed once the legislative process for forming a government is completed and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. If the next Canadian Government after the election is not announced by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Canadian government.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Next Government of Canada?
Liberal Minority leads at 100%, followed by Liberal Majority at 0% and Conservative Majority at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 5 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Next Government of Canada?
Liberal Minority, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Next Government of Canada market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Next Government of Canada?
$19M has traded cumulatively on this market across 5 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Next Government of Canada?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.