Market Context by Polymarket
The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Donald Trump currently leads at 0%, ahead of Elon Musk at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $31M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins the 2025 Nobel Peace prize. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump wins the prize along with another person/entity, this market will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Nobel Peace Prize 2025?
Donald Trump leads at 0%, followed by Elon Musk at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Nobel Peace Prize 2025?
Donald Trump, at 0% implied probability.
How does the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Nobel Peace Prize 2025?
$31M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Nobel Peace Prize 2025?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.