Market Context by Polymarket
The Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Person W currently leads at 100%, ahead of Person X at 100% and Person Y at 100%, across 71 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 April 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $32M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?
Person W leads at 100%, followed by Person X at 100% and Person Y at 100%. Odds reflect live trading across 71 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Person W, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 April 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
$32M has traded cumulatively on this market across 71 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.