Market Context by Polymarket
The # of seats Liberal–National Coalition wins in Australian Election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. <45 currently leads at 100%, ahead of 45–49 at 0% and 50–54 at 0%, across 8 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 30 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $403K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on 3 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. This market will resolve according to the number of seats the Liberal–National Coalition wins in the Australian House of Representatives (Australia's lower house) as a result of the next Australian parliamentary election. If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Australian government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/). Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for # of seats Liberal–National Coalition wins in Australian Election??
<45 leads at 100%, followed by 45–49 at 0% and 50–54 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 8 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on # of seats Liberal–National Coalition wins?
<45, at 100% implied probability.
How does the # of seats Liberal–National Coalition wins in Australian Election? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on # of seats Liberal–National Coalition wins?
$403K has traded cumulatively on this market across 8 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on # of seats Liberal–National Coalition wins?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.