Market Context by Polymarket
The Ontario Parliamentary Election 2nd Place market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. New Democratic currently leads at 100%, ahead of Progressive Conservative at 0% and Liberal at 0%, across 5 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 27 February 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $435K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The 2025 Ontario parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place on February 27, 2025 to elect the 44th Parliament of Ontario. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the second most seats in the 44th Parliament of Ontario as a result of the upcoming election. If voting in the next Ontario parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ontario government (e.g. via https://results.elections.on.ca/en/results-overview).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Ontario Parliamentary Election 2nd Place?
New Democratic leads at 100%, followed by Progressive Conservative at 0% and Liberal at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 5 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Ontario Parliamentary Election 2nd Place?
New Democratic, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Ontario Parliamentary Election 2nd Place market resolve?
The market resolves on 27 February 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Ontario Parliamentary Election 2nd Place?
$435K has traded cumulatively on this market across 5 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Ontario Parliamentary Election 2nd Place?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.