Market Context by Polymarket

The Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 9 May 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $1.2M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Indian soil between May 7, 2:30 PM ET and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian ground territory. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Indian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes along the line of control, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or sanctions, will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday??

Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil?

Yes, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil by Friday? market resolve?

The market resolves on 9 May 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil?

$1.2M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Pakistan air/missile strike on Indian soil?

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.