Market Context by Polymarket
The Poland Presidential Election Margin of Victory market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Nawrocki 0-4% currently leads at 100%, ahead of Trzaskowski >12% at 0% and Trzaskowski 8-12% at 0%, across 8 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 June 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $16M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The runoff for the Polish presidential election is scheduled for June 1, 2025. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Polish Presidential Election runoff. For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in Polish Presidential Election runoff. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the votes count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2025 ET, or if the runoff is permanently canceled, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Polish Government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Poland Presidential Election Margin of Victory?
Nawrocki 0-4% leads at 100%, followed by Trzaskowski >12% at 0% and Trzaskowski 8-12% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 8 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Poland Election Margin of Victory?
Nawrocki 0-4%, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Poland Presidential Election Margin of Victory market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 June 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Poland Election Margin of Victory?
$16M has traded cumulatively on this market across 8 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Poland Election Margin of Victory?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.