Market Context by Polymarket
The Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $789K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
On October 5, Keith Rabois (@rabois) tweeted "Trump wins PA, MI and GA. AZ too." (see: https://x.com/rabois/status/1842717862684762370?s=46) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and A?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and AZ? market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and A?
$789K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Rabois Parlay: Trump wins PA, MI, GA and A?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.