Market Context by Polymarket
The Satoshi's identity be proven by...? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. December 31 currently leads at 3%, ahead of July 31 at 0% and April 30 at 0%, across 4 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Satoshi's identity be proven by...??
December 31 leads at 3%, followed by July 31 at 0% and April 30 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 4 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Satoshi's identity be proven by...??
December 31, at 3% implied probability.
How does the Satoshi's identity be proven by...? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Satoshi's identity be proven by...??
$2M has traded cumulatively on this market across 4 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Satoshi's identity be proven by...??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.