Market Context by Polymarket
The Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 78%, ahead of Yes at 22%. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $12M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31??
No leads at 78%, followed by Yes at 22%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?
No, at 78% implied probability.
How does the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?
$12M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.