Market Context by Polymarket
The Trump 538 approval rating on Feb 14? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. 49% or more currently leads at 100%, ahead of <45% at 0% and 45.0-45.9% at 0%, across 6 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 14 February 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $450K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to FiveThirtyEight's approval rating for Donald Trump on February 14, 2025. Note that the approval ratings for February 14 must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Trump 538 approval rating on Feb 14??
49% or more leads at 100%, followed by <45% at 0% and 45.0-45.9% at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 6 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on Trump 538 approval rating on Feb 14??
49% or more, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Trump 538 approval rating on Feb 14? market resolve?
The market resolves on 14 February 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump 538 approval rating on Feb 14??
$450K has traded cumulatively on this market across 6 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump 538 approval rating on Feb 14??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.