Market Context by Polymarket
The Trump in jail before election day? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 4 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison between January 5 and November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Trump in jail before election day??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Trump in jail before election day??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Trump in jail before election day? market resolve?
The market resolves on 4 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump in jail before election day??
$2.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump in jail before election day??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.