Market Context by Polymarket
The Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 March 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $7.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 2 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian rare earth elements. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the exchange of Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid (military or civilian), partnerships involving rare earth metals, future rights to rare earth resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to rare earth elements. An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal befor?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 March 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal befor?
$7.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal befor?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.