Market Context by Polymarket
The US military intervention by Oct 31? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 October 2023.
Cumulative volume on this market is $341K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET the United States engages in a kinetic strike relating to the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. This market will also resolve to “Yes” if the US deploys any new troops on the ground with the explicit purpose of combat operations in the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. Official announcements can include, but are not limited to, statements or press releases issued by the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or public speeches by the U.S. President or Secretary of Defense. The market will resolve to "No" if no such intervention occurs by October 31, 2023.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for US military intervention by Oct 31??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on US military intervention by Oct 31??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the US military intervention by Oct 31? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 October 2023. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on US military intervention by Oct 31??
$341K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on US military intervention by Oct 31??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.