Market Context by Polymarket
The What will be the next Pope's papal name? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Leo currently leads at 100%, ahead of Francis at 0% and John at 0%, across 16 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 31 December 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $336K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve according to the official papal name chosen by the next Pope of the Roman Catholic Church. Only names that exactly match the listed option will qualify. Compound names will not count for the single name (e.g. "John Paul" would not count for “John”). If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for What will be the next Pope's papal name??
Leo leads at 100%, followed by Francis at 0% and John at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 16 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on What will be the next Pope's papal name??
Leo, at 100% implied probability.
How does the What will be the next Pope's papal name? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 December 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on What will be the next Pope's papal name??
$336K has traded cumulatively on this market across 16 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on What will be the next Pope's papal name??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.