Market Context by Polymarket

The When will Israel announce ceasefire? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. October 8 currently leads at 100%, ahead of October 7 at 0% and October 9 at 0%, across 26 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 13 October 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $11M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas. If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”. If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for When will Israel announce ceasefire? ?

October 8 leads at 100%, followed by October 7 at 0% and October 9 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 26 outcomes.

Who is the favourite on When will Israel announce ceasefire??

October 8, at 100% implied probability.

How does the When will Israel announce ceasefire? market resolve?

The market resolves on 13 October 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on When will Israel announce ceasefire??

$11M has traded cumulatively on this market across 26 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on When will Israel announce ceasefire??

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.