Market Context by Polymarket
The When will the Government shutdown end? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. October 15 or later currently leads at 100%, ahead of October 1-2 at 0% and October 3-5 at 0%, across 6 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 15 October 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $7M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. If OPM does not announce a shutdown on October 1, 2025 by 10:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to “No Shutdown.” Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for When will the Government shutdown end??
October 15 or later leads at 100%, followed by October 1-2 at 0% and October 3-5 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 6 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on When will the Government shutdown end??
October 15 or later, at 100% implied probability.
How does the When will the Government shutdown end? market resolve?
The market resolves on 15 October 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on When will the Government shutdown end??
$7M has traded cumulatively on this market across 6 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on When will the Government shutdown end??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.