Market Context by Polymarket

The Which country will Trump lower tariffs on first? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. India currently leads at 100%, ahead of China at 0% and Japan at 0%, across 10 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 31 July 2025.

Cumulative volume on this market is $474K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve according to the first listed country which Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports on. If Trump does not lower tariffs on any listed country by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by July 31". Only listed countries will qualify. If Trump lowers tariffs on multiple listed countries simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of whichever country’s listed names comes first alphabetically. Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on imports from the listed country will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, item specific tariffs, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting imports from the listed country. Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting the listed country will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific provinces provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution. Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Which country will Trump lower tariffs on first??

India leads at 100%, followed by China at 0% and Japan at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 10 outcomes.

Who is the favourite on country will Trump lower tariffs on first??

India, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Which country will Trump lower tariffs on first? market resolve?

The market resolves on 31 July 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on country will Trump lower tariffs on first??

$474K has traded cumulatively on this market across 10 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on country will Trump lower tariffs on first??

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.