Market Context by Polymarket
The Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Liberal Party currently leads at 100%, ahead of Conservative Party at 0% and Bloc Québécois at 0%, across 7 tradeable outcomes. The market resolves on 28 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $5.8M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to the party that wins popular vote in the next Canadian general election. Winning the popular vote is defined as receiving the largest total number of votes regardless of seats won. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election??
Liberal Party leads at 100%, followed by Conservative Party at 0% and Bloc Québécois at 0%. Odds reflect live trading across 7 outcomes.
Who is the favourite on popular vote in the next Canadian election?
Liberal Party, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election? market resolve?
The market resolves on 28 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on popular vote in the next Canadian election?
$5.8M has traded cumulatively on this market across 7 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on popular vote in the next Canadian election?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.