Market Context by Polymarket
The Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Harris currently leads at 100%, ahead of Trump at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $478K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Harris" if according to the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If the Silver Bulletin's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election??
Harris leads at 100%, followed by Trump at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Nate Silver predict to win the election??
Harris, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Who will Nate Silver predict to win the election? market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Nate Silver predict to win the election??
$478K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Nate Silver predict to win the election??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.