Market Context by Polymarket
The Who will win the debate according to polls? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Kamala currently leads at 100%, ahead of Trump at 0%. The market resolves on 24 September 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $1.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Kamala" if Ipsos/538's opinion poll indicates Kamala Harris won the ABC-hosted debate against Donald Trump scheduled for September 10, 2024. This market will resolve to "Trump" if Ipsos/538 opinion poll indicates Donald Trump won. If the results are tied, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the Ipsos/538 release will not be considered for this market. If this debate is cancelled, otherwise rescheduled, or does not take place by September 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos/538 does not release a poll within a week of the debate (currently September 17, 11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve based on polls from YouGov. If YouGov also hasn't released a poll within a week of the debate, this market will resolve to "50-50".
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Who will win the debate according to polls??
Kamala leads at 100%, followed by Trump at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on win the debate according to polls??
Kamala, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Who will win the debate according to polls? market resolve?
The market resolves on 24 September 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on win the debate according to polls??
$1.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on win the debate according to polls??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.