Market Context by Polymarket
The Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $9.9M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if third party candidates combined receive 2% or more of the total popular vote (including write-ins) in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Third-party candidates refer to any candidates not running as a Democrat or Republican, including candidates running as independents. This market will resolve based on the percentage of third party candidates out of the total number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates??
$9.9M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.