Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 73%, ahead of No at 27%. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $199K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31??
Yes leads at 73%, followed by No at 27%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Anthropic flip BTC by December 31??
Yes, at 73% implied probability.
How does the Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Anthropic flip BTC by December 31??
$199K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Anthropic flip BTC by December 31??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on crypto?
Crypto markets price rapidly and reflect sentiment shifts within minutes, but they are volatile and prone to sharp reversals on thin liquidity. Volume matters more than price level when judging conviction.