Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Biden resign before inauguration? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 19 January 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $848K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Joe Biden announces has resigned or will resign the presidency by January 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Joe Biden to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g. due to his removal from office by other means, etc), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary Biden announce that he has or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Biden resign before inauguration??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Biden resign before inauguration??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Biden resign before inauguration? market resolve?
The market resolves on 19 January 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Biden resign before inauguration??
$848K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Biden resign before inauguration??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.