Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Israel invade Lebanon before March? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 29 February 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $409K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Israel invade Lebanon before March??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Israel invade Lebanon before March??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Israel invade Lebanon before March? market resolve?
The market resolves on 29 February 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Israel invade Lebanon before March??
$409K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Israel invade Lebanon before March??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.