Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 31 October 2023.
Cumulative volume on this market is $585K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if by October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (UTC +3), Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza. A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves greater than 1000 Israeli ground forces, and does not include smaller raids or special operations. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The market will resolve to "No" if no such major ground offensive takes place in Gaza by the Israeli forces by October 31. If the event occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve immediately.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Israel launch a major ground offensive in?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Oct 31? market resolve?
The market resolves on 31 October 2023. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Israel launch a major ground offensive in?
$585K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Israel launch a major ground offensive in?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Prediction markets tend to be sharper than polls when volume is healthy, because traders lose money for being wrong. Thin markets with little trading are less reliable — treat those prices as a signal, not a certainty.