Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Israel strike Syria by...? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. September 15 currently leads at 100%, ahead of September 30 at 0%. The market resolves on 30 September 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $2.1M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Syrian soil or any Syrian embassy or consulate between September 2, 5 PM ET, and September 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Syrian ground territory or any official Syrian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Syrian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Syrian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Israel strike Syria by...??
September 15 leads at 100%, followed by September 30 at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Israel strike Syria by...??
September 15, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Israel strike Syria by...? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 September 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Israel strike Syria by...??
$2.1M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Israel strike Syria by...??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.