Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Mark Carney lose his seat? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 28 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $3.6M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
The next Canadian general election will take place on April 28, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mark Carney loses his election for parliament as a result of the next Canadian general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Carney announces he will not run for a seat in this election, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Mark Carney lose his seat??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Mark Carney lose his seat??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Mark Carney lose his seat? market resolve?
The market resolves on 28 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Mark Carney lose his seat??
$3.6M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Mark Carney lose his seat??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.