Market Context by Polymarket
The Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 23 August 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $9.7M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by 11:59 PM ET on August 23, 2024. In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Kennedy from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes". If Kennedy does not announce his withdrawal or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race by the specified time, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from RFK Jr. or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on RFK Jr. drop out by Friday??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will RFK Jr. drop out by Friday? market resolve?
The market resolves on 23 August 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on RFK Jr. drop out by Friday??
$9.7M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on RFK Jr. drop out by Friday??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.