Market Context by Polymarket
The RFK Jr. wins a state? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 5 November 2024.
Cumulative volume on this market is $379K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the popular vote in any state in the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only statewide popular vote results will be considered. Washington D.C., territories and individual congressional district electors will not count towards the resolution of this market. This market may resolve immediately if at least one state has been called for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for President by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC or if all states have been called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources haven’t called the race for all states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for RFK Jr. wins a state??
No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on RFK Jr. wins a state??
No, at 100% implied probability.
How does the RFK Jr. wins a state? market resolve?
The market resolves on 5 November 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on RFK Jr. wins a state??
$379K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on RFK Jr. wins a state??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.