Market Context by Polymarket

The Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 100%, ahead of Yes at 0%. The market resolves on 31 December 2024.

Cumulative volume on this market is $1.2M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.

How this market resolves?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by December 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024??

No leads at 100%, followed by Yes at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.

Who is the favourite on Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024??

No, at 100% implied probability.

How does the Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024? market resolve?

The market resolves on 31 December 2024. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.

How much money is on Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024??

$1.2M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.

Can I see who is betting on Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024??

Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.

How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?

Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.