Market Context by Polymarket
The Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. No currently leads at 85%, ahead of Yes at 15%. The market resolves on 1 January 2027.
Cumulative volume on this market is $68M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
No leads at 85%, followed by Yes at 15%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
No, at 85% implied probability.
How does the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? market resolve?
The market resolves on 1 January 2027. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
$68M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.