Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 4 February 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $983K. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump issues and signs an executive order on February 4, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Executive actions will not qualify toward this market’s resolution. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No” In the case of ambiguity this market will remain open until 11:59PM ET of [day+7] until it is either confirmed or denied by the federal registrar, the White House or a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4??
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Trump issue an executive order on February?
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4? market resolve?
The market resolves on 4 February 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump issue an executive order on February?
$983K has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump issue an executive order on February?
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.