Market Context by Polymarket
The Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? market on Polymarket prices the likelihood of each possible outcome as an implied probability. Yes currently leads at 100%, ahead of No at 0%. The market resolves on 30 April 2025.
Cumulative volume on this market is $11M. You can explore live prices, the full outcome list and trader positioning in the analytics above.
How this market resolves?
On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced a 34% reciprocal tariff on all imports from China, set to take effect on April 9, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, in addition to an existing 20% tariff (totaling 54%), as part of the “Liberation Day” tariff plan (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2025/04/02/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from China by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Chinese imports will qualify, including changes to the 34% reciprocal tariff, the existing 20% tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Chinese goods. Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Chinese provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution. Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Polymarket odds for Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? ?
Yes leads at 100%, followed by No at 0%. Odds reflect live trading on Polymarket.
Who is the favourite on Trump lower tariffs on China in April??
Yes, at 100% implied probability.
How does the Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? market resolve?
The market resolves on 30 April 2025. Shares in the winning outcome settle at $1.00; all others settle at $0.00. See How this market resolves? above for the official resolution rules.
How much money is on Trump lower tariffs on China in April??
$11M has traded cumulatively on this market across 2 outcomes.
Can I see who is betting on Trump lower tariffs on China in April??
Yes. Polymarket trades are on-chain, so positions are public. Use the holders and traders views on this page to inspect wallets active in this market.
How accurate are Polymarket odds on politics?
Prediction markets have generally outperformed polling averages on US elections, particularly in the final weeks before a vote. They are weakest far out from an event, when few traders are engaged and volume is thin — check open interest before treating a long-dated price as a forecast.